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Na istom mjestu na kojem je bio upriličen i povijesni hladnoratovski susret Ronalda Reagana i Mihaila Gorbačova – u Ženevi – danas se sastaju, u poprilično sličnim okolnostima, Joe Biden i Vladimir Putin. To sigurno neće biti prijateljski razgovori. Za početak, Rusija je nedavno uvrstila SAD na svoj službeni popis "neprijateljskih država", a Biden je još u ožujku za Putina javno govorio da je „ubojica“.

Obje strane tvrde da su im odnosi na dnu i niti jedna trenutno nema veleposlanika u drugoj zemlji. Ruski dužnosnici pod američkim su sankcijama zbog niza stvari, od pripajanja ukrajinskog Krima do navodnog ruskog miješanja u američke izbore, a i dvojica bivših marinaca čame u ruskim zatvorima: jedan je osuđen na 16 godina zbog navodne špijunaže.

Usprkos svemu, prvi sastanak ovog predsjedničkog dvojca mnogi u Rusiji unaprijed vide kao postignuće samo po sebi. Rusija će se naći u istoj ravni s SAD-om, a Putin jako želi biti još jednom oslikan kao „mačo“ i jednak po snazi američkom predsjedniku. Kao racionalan političar, istodobno želi smanjiti troškove i rizike povezane s lošim odnosima, što prije svega uključuje ekonomske sankcije koje naprežu rusko gospodarstvo u pandemijskoj godini i uoči ključnih parlamentarnih izbora.

Službeno, Kremlj umanjuje očekivanja od ovog susreta, no ispod površine se žarko nada da će biti pozitivnih pomaka. Ono što Vladimir Putin nikako ne želi je predavanje o ljudskim pravima, naročito u kontekstu slučaja Alekseja Navaljnog, ruskog oporbenog političara koji je prvo otrovan, pa onda zatvoren i pod prijetnjom osude. Biden će susret sigurno nastojati početi tom pričom, a Putin će vjerojatno ustrajavati na stavu kako se to ne tiče Amerike. Kako dogovori o ukrajinskom pitanju i o ljudskim pravima neće biti mogući, „glavno jelo“ susreta, nadaju se analitičari s obje strane, biti će neki potezi koji će simbolički umanjiti globalnu napetost.

Politologinja Tatjana Stanovaja iz moskovskog ogranka Carnegie Centra za Deutsche Welle tvrdi kako prostor za pomake sigurno leži u dogovoru o strateškoj stabilnosti, te u sporazumu o nuklearnom naoružanju, kibernetičkim napadima, zajedničkom djelovanju u svemiru. I taj moment svjetski kalendar asocijativno vraća na slične svojedobne dogovora Nikite Hruščova i Johna F. Kennedyja, što – naposljetku – obje države posredno potvrđuje kao svjetske velesile. Takvo priznanje trenutno puno više treba Rusiji nego SAD-u, kojemu je je Kina realno puno veći rival od Moskve. Joe Biden je unaprijed odbio zajedničku završnu konferenciju za tisak s Putinom, čime očito želi umanjiti rusku slavodobitnost, no uvijek ostaje prostor da se – s obzirom na teme na stolu – ta mogućnost na kraju ipak realizira.

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Na istom mjestu na kojem je bio upriličen i povijesni hladnoratovski susret Ronalda Reagana i Mihaila Gorbačova – u Ženevi – danas se sastaju, u poprilično sličnim okolnostima, Joe Biden i Vladimir Putin. To sigurno neće biti prijateljski razgovori. Za početak, Rusija je nedavno uvrstila SAD na svoj službeni popis "neprijateljskih država", a Biden je još u ožujku za Putina javno govorio da je „ubojica“.

Obje strane tvrde da su im odnosi na dnu i niti jedna trenutno nema veleposlanika u drugoj zemlji. Ruski dužnosnici pod američkim su sankcijama zbog niza stvari, od pripajanja ukrajinskog Krima do navodnog ruskog miješanja u američke izbore, a i dvojica bivših marinaca čame u ruskim zatvorima: jedan je osuđen na 16 godina zbog navodne špijunaže.

Usprkos svemu, prvi sastanak ovog predsjedničkog dvojca mnogi u Rusiji unaprijed vide kao postignuće samo po sebi. Rusija će se naći u istoj ravni s SAD-om, a Putin jako želi biti još jednom oslikan kao „mačo“ i jednak po snazi američkom predsjedniku. Kao racionalan političar, istodobno želi smanjiti troškove i rizike povezane s lošim odnosima, što prije svega uključuje ekonomske sankcije koje naprežu rusko gospodarstvo u pandemijskoj godini i uoči ključnih parlamentarnih izbora.

Službeno, Kremlj umanjuje očekivanja od ovog susreta, no ispod površine se žarko nada da će biti pozitivnih pomaka. Ono što Vladimir Putin nikako ne želi je predavanje o ljudskim pravima, naročito u kontekstu slučaja Alekseja Navaljnog, ruskog oporbenog političara koji je prvo otrovan, pa onda zatvoren i pod prijetnjom osude. Biden će susret sigurno nastojati početi tom pričom, a Putin će vjerojatno ustrajavati na stavu kako se to ne tiče Amerike. Kako dogovori o ukrajinskom pitanju i o ljudskim pravima neće biti mogući, „glavno jelo“ susreta, nadaju se analitičari s obje strane, biti će neki potezi koji će simbolički umanjiti globalnu napetost.

Politologinja Tatjana Stanovaja iz moskovskog ogranka Carnegie Centra za Deutsche Welle tvrdi kako prostor za pomake sigurno leži u dogovoru o strateškoj stabilnosti, te u sporazumu o nuklearnom naoružanju, kibernetičkim napadima, zajedničkom djelovanju u svemiru. I taj moment svjetski kalendar asocijativno vraća na slične svojedobne dogovora Nikite Hruščova i Johna F. Kennedyja, što – naposljetku – obje države posredno potvrđuje kao svjetske velesile. Takvo priznanje trenutno puno više treba Rusiji nego SAD-u, kojemu je je Kina realno puno veći rival od Moskve. Joe Biden je unaprijed odbio zajedničku završnu konferenciju za tisak s Putinom, čime očito želi umanjiti rusku slavodobitnost, no uvijek ostaje prostor da se – s obzirom na teme na stolu – ta mogućnost na kraju ipak realizira.

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AFP
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StoryEditorOCM
SvijetHladni rat 2.0

Danas se po prvi put, u gotovo hladnoratovskoj atmosferi, sastaju Joe Biden i Vladimir Putin. Evo što obje strane očekuju od tog povijesnog susreta

Piše Davor Krile
15. lipnja 2021. - 21:41
18193270
PREMIUM
AFP

Na istom mjestu na kojem je bio upriličen i povijesni hladnoratovski susret Ronalda Reagana i Mihaila Gorbačova – u Ženevi – danas se sastaju, u poprilično sličnim okolnostima, Joe Biden i Vladimir Putin. To sigurno neće biti prijateljski razgovori. Za početak, Rusija je nedavno uvrstila SAD na svoj službeni popis "neprijateljskih država", a Biden je još u ožujku za Putina javno govorio da je „ubojica“.

Obje strane tvrde da su im odnosi na dnu i niti jedna trenutno nema veleposlanika u drugoj zemlji. Ruski dužnosnici pod američkim su sankcijama zbog niza stvari, od pripajanja ukrajinskog Krima do navodnog ruskog miješanja u američke izbore, a i dvojica bivših marinaca čame u ruskim zatvorima: jedan je osuđen na 16 godina zbog navodne špijunaže.

Usprkos svemu, ...

#JOE BIDEN#VLADIMIR PUTIN#HLADNI RAT
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11. svibanj 2024 05:40