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Današnji izbori na Tajvanu, ovisno o ishodu, mogli bi oblikovati budućnost Dalekog istoka, ali i čitavog svijeta. Ako pobijedi kandidat oporbenog Kuomintanga – partije koja priznaje princip “jedne Kine” i sklona je ekonomskoj suradnji s Pekingom – vjerojatno se neće dogoditi ništa.

Ali ako pobijedi kandidat vladajuće proameričke Demokratske progresivne stranke (DPP), koju Kina optužuje za separatizam, komunisti s druge strane Tajvanskog tjesnaca možda bi mogli zaključiti da je napokon došlo vrijeme za pokoravanje “odmetnutog otoka” i ujedinjenje domovine, makar i vojnom silom.

A ta bi kineska akcija neminovno izazvala američku protuakciju u obranu Tajvana, i svijet bi se našao u situaciji izravnog sraza dviju nuklearnih sila, od kojih najmanje jedna pitanje Tajvana doživljava egzistencijalnim.

No to su samo krajnje projekcije o najgorim mogućim varijantama raspleta tajvanskih izbora, na koje pravo izlaska ima gotovo 20 milijuna registriranih birača. Za razliku od većine izbora na Zapadu, izbori na Tajvanu su jednokružni, tako da današnji pobjednik automatski postaje novi predsjednik Tajvana, čak i ako ne ostvari apsolutnu većinu.

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William Lai 5. siječnja na sastanku Demokratske progresivne stranke povodom kampanje za tajvanske predsjedničke izbore AFP

Jimmy Beunardeau/Hans Lucas Via Afp
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Recentne ankete pokazuju da DPP-ov kandidat William Lai ima nekoliko postotaka prednosti pred Kuomintangovim kandidatom Hou Yu-ihom. U jednom od posljednjih istraživanja, koje je United Daily News proveo između 26. prosinca i 30. prosinca (u Tajvanu zakon zabranjuje objavu anketa zadnjih deset dana prije izbora), Lai je imao potporu od 32 posto, a Hou 27 posto.

Treći kandidat, Ko Wen-je iz Tajvanske narodne stranke (TPP) – novije partije koja je ideološki negdje između nacionalističkog Kuomintanga i liberalnog DPP-a, ali poput Kuomintanga podržava dobre odnose s Kinom – ima 21 posto i nema šanse za pobjedu. Jesenas su Kuomintang i TPP vodili pregovore oko zajedničkog izbornog nastupa, ali se nisu uspjeli dogovoriti oko zajedničkog kandidata, što će, kako stvari stoje, olakšati posao Laiju.

Paljenje alarma

Od uvođenja demokracije na Tajvan 1996. godine izbori su održani sedam puta: četiri puta su pobijedili kandidati DPP-a (2000., 2004., 2016. i 2020.), a triput Kuomintangovi (1996., 2008. i 2012.). Kako vidimo, još nikad nijedna partija na Tajvanu nije uspjela vladati tri mandata zaredom. I upravo u tom grmu leži zec strepnje.

Mnogi analitičari, naime, strahuju da bi treća pobjeda DPP-a zaredom – a vidjeli smo da ankete ukazuju upravo na takav ishod – upalila u Pekingu sve alarme, odnosno da bi Komunistička partija Kine takav izborni rezultat mogla protumačiti kao znak da je unitaristička ideja na otoku oslabila, naročito među novim generacijama birača, što bi kineske komuniste moglo nagnati na veći angažman oko Tajvana, što god to značilo.

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Hou Yu-ih, predsjednički kandidat Kuomintanga na predizbornom skupu u Kaohsiungu 10. siječnja AFP

Yasuyoshi Chiba/Afp
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Stoga se ovi izbori održavaju u ozračju posebno napetih odnosa između Pekinga i Taipeija, obilježenih čestim letovima kineskih eskadrila u blizini otoka, kao i novogodišnjom izjavom kineskog vođe Xi Jinpinga da je “ponovno ujedinjenje domovine povijesna neizbježnost”. Xi nije spominjao rokove ni metode ujedinjenja, ali poruka je jasno prenijela kineski stav o Tajvanu.

U takvom je ozračju protekla i izborna kampanja. Kandidat DPP-a je poručivao da je očuvanje tajvanskog identiteta i sigurnosti u uvjetima kineske agresivnosti moguće jedino stvaranjem bližih veza sa SAD-om, dok je kandidat Kuomintanga dokazivao da upravo takav DPP-ov pristup vodi u rat s Kinom – koji Tajvan ne može dobiti i nema potreba da u njega ulazi – te je isticao da je stvaranje prijateljskih veza s Kinom bolji pristup za Tajvan.

Sigurnost Tajvana važna je za cijeli svijet, jer ova je zemlja vodeći proizvođač naprednih poluvodiča na kojima se zasniva suvremena civilizacija. Stoga bi svaki metak na Tajvanu odjeknuo čitavim planetom.

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Onda kreće Amerika... 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William Lai 5. siječnja na sastanku Demokratske progresivne stranke povodom kampanje za tajvanske predsjedničke izbore AFP

Jimmy Beunardeau/Hans Lucas Via Afp ) [2] => stdClass Object ( [src] => https://static.slobodnadalmacija.hr/images/slike/2024/01/10/26338803.jpg [title] =>

Hou Yu-ih, predsjednički kandidat Kuomintanga na predizbornom skupu u Kaohsiungu 10. siječnja AFP

 Yasuyoshi Chiba/Afp ) ) [bgPosition] => [text] => {OCMSplitter}

Današnji izbori na Tajvanu, ovisno o ishodu, mogli bi oblikovati budućnost Dalekog istoka, ali i čitavog svijeta. Ako pobijedi kandidat oporbenog Kuomintanga – partije koja priznaje princip “jedne Kine” i sklona je ekonomskoj suradnji s Pekingom – vjerojatno se neće dogoditi ništa.

Ali ako pobijedi kandidat vladajuće proameričke Demokratske progresivne stranke (DPP), koju Kina optužuje za separatizam, komunisti s druge strane Tajvanskog tjesnaca možda bi mogli zaključiti da je napokon došlo vrijeme za pokoravanje “odmetnutog otoka” i ujedinjenje domovine, makar i vojnom silom.

A ta bi kineska akcija neminovno izazvala američku protuakciju u obranu Tajvana, i svijet bi se našao u situaciji izravnog sraza dviju nuklearnih sila, od kojih najmanje jedna pitanje Tajvana doživljava egzistencijalnim.

No to su samo krajnje projekcije o najgorim mogućim varijantama raspleta tajvanskih izbora, na koje pravo izlaska ima gotovo 20 milijuna registriranih birača. Za razliku od većine izbora na Zapadu, izbori na Tajvanu su jednokružni, tako da današnji pobjednik automatski postaje novi predsjednik Tajvana, čak i ako ne ostvari apsolutnu većinu.

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image

William Lai 5. siječnja na sastanku Demokratske progresivne stranke povodom kampanje za tajvanske predsjedničke izbore AFP

Jimmy Beunardeau/Hans Lucas Via Afp
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Recentne ankete pokazuju da DPP-ov kandidat William Lai ima nekoliko postotaka prednosti pred Kuomintangovim kandidatom Hou Yu-ihom. U jednom od posljednjih istraživanja, koje je United Daily News proveo između 26. prosinca i 30. prosinca (u Tajvanu zakon zabranjuje objavu anketa zadnjih deset dana prije izbora), Lai je imao potporu od 32 posto, a Hou 27 posto.

Treći kandidat, Ko Wen-je iz Tajvanske narodne stranke (TPP) – novije partije koja je ideološki negdje između nacionalističkog Kuomintanga i liberalnog DPP-a, ali poput Kuomintanga podržava dobre odnose s Kinom – ima 21 posto i nema šanse za pobjedu. Jesenas su Kuomintang i TPP vodili pregovore oko zajedničkog izbornog nastupa, ali se nisu uspjeli dogovoriti oko zajedničkog kandidata, što će, kako stvari stoje, olakšati posao Laiju.

Paljenje alarma

Od uvođenja demokracije na Tajvan 1996. godine izbori su održani sedam puta: četiri puta su pobijedili kandidati DPP-a (2000., 2004., 2016. i 2020.), a triput Kuomintangovi (1996., 2008. i 2012.). Kako vidimo, još nikad nijedna partija na Tajvanu nije uspjela vladati tri mandata zaredom. I upravo u tom grmu leži zec strepnje.

Mnogi analitičari, naime, strahuju da bi treća pobjeda DPP-a zaredom – a vidjeli smo da ankete ukazuju upravo na takav ishod – upalila u Pekingu sve alarme, odnosno da bi Komunistička partija Kine takav izborni rezultat mogla protumačiti kao znak da je unitaristička ideja na otoku oslabila, naročito među novim generacijama birača, što bi kineske komuniste moglo nagnati na veći angažman oko Tajvana, što god to značilo.

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image

Hou Yu-ih, predsjednički kandidat Kuomintanga na predizbornom skupu u Kaohsiungu 10. siječnja AFP

Yasuyoshi Chiba/Afp
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Stoga se ovi izbori održavaju u ozračju posebno napetih odnosa između Pekinga i Taipeija, obilježenih čestim letovima kineskih eskadrila u blizini otoka, kao i novogodišnjom izjavom kineskog vođe Xi Jinpinga da je “ponovno ujedinjenje domovine povijesna neizbježnost”. Xi nije spominjao rokove ni metode ujedinjenja, ali poruka je jasno prenijela kineski stav o Tajvanu.

U takvom je ozračju protekla i izborna kampanja. Kandidat DPP-a je poručivao da je očuvanje tajvanskog identiteta i sigurnosti u uvjetima kineske agresivnosti moguće jedino stvaranjem bližih veza sa SAD-om, dok je kandidat Kuomintanga dokazivao da upravo takav DPP-ov pristup vodi u rat s Kinom – koji Tajvan ne može dobiti i nema potreba da u njega ulazi – te je isticao da je stvaranje prijateljskih veza s Kinom bolji pristup za Tajvan.

Sigurnost Tajvana važna je za cijeli svijet, jer ova je zemlja vodeći proizvođač naprednih poluvodiča na kojima se zasniva suvremena civilizacija. Stoga bi svaki metak na Tajvanu odjeknuo čitavim planetom.

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/Shutterstock Jimmy Beunardeau/Hans Lucas Via Afp Yasuyoshi Chiba/Afp
Jimmy Beunardeau/Hans Lucas Via Afp

William Lai 5. siječnja na sastanku Demokratske progresivne stranke povodom kampanje za tajvanske predsjedničke izbore AFP
Yasuyoshi Chiba/Afp

Hou Yu-ih, predsjednički kandidat Kuomintanga na predizbornom skupu u Kaohsiungu 10. siječnja AFP
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Svijet(Ne)daleki istok

Ne svide li se Kini rezultati izbora na Tajvanu, moglo bi doći do pokoravanja ‘odmetnutog otoka‘. Onda kreće Amerika...

Piše Damir Pilić
13. siječnja 2024. - 14:01
25154567
PREMIUM
Galerija
/Shutterstock

Današnji izbori na Tajvanu, ovisno o ishodu, mogli bi oblikovati budućnost Dalekog istoka, ali i čitavog svijeta. Ako pobijedi kandidat oporbenog Kuomintanga – partije koja priznaje princip “jedne Kine” i sklona je ekonomskoj suradnji s Pekingom – vjerojatno se neće dogoditi ništa.

Ali ako pobijedi kandidat vladajuće proameričke Demokratske progresivne stranke (DPP), koju Kina optužuje za separatizam, komunisti s druge strane Tajvanskog tjesnaca možda bi mogli zaključiti da je napokon došlo vrijeme za pokoravanje “odmetnutog otoka” i ujedinjenje domovine, makar i vojnom silom.

A ta bi kineska akcija neminovno izazvala američku protuakciju u obranu Tajvana, i svijet bi se našao u situaciji izravnog sraza dviju nuklearnih sila, od kojih najmanje jedna pitanje Tajvana ...

#TAJVAN#IZBORI#KINA#SAD
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12. svibanj 2024 05:34