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Ako vas danas desetero sjedi za stolom u Pragu, rizik da je najmanje jedna osoba zaražena koronavirusom iznosi 58 posto. U Parizu je rizik 32, a u Washingtonu 18 posto.
Taj ćete izračun dobiti zahvaljujući internetskom alatu koji je razvila skupina američkih znanstvenika i omogućuje ljudima da procijene rizik od zaraze na okupljanjima.
Matematika je jednostavna i temelji se na službenim podacima o širenju pandemije u realnom vremenu.
Autori su znanstvenici s Tehnološkog instituta u Georgiji, a njihova je metodologija dobila potvrdu objavom u prestižnom časopisu Nature.
Na stranici https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/ zasad se rizik da ste u društvu zaraženog može izračunati za Sjedinjene Države (po okruzima) i za dio europskih zemalja (po njihovim regijama).
Model uzima u obzir činjenicu da je stvaran broj zaraženih pet do deset puta veći od broja pozitivnih testova, pa korisnik može izabrati jednu od te dvije hipoteze za svoju računicu. Također može birati želi li društvo od pet, deset, pedeset, sto pa čak i 5000 ljudi.
Autori su zauzeli konzervativan pristup pa računaju da je zaražena osoba pozitivna deset dana, rekao je glavni tvorac programa Joshua Weitz.
Epidemiolozi u stvarnosti računaju da je osoba zarazna kraće, pet do šest dana, unatoč tomu što je rezidualna prisutnost virusa u organizmu dulja.
Autori napominju da njihov model samo izračunava vjerojatnost da je netko u vašem društvu zaražen, a ne i kolika je vjerojatnost da ćete se i vi zaraziti jer to ovisi o previše varijabli, poput nošenja maske i prozračivanja prostorije.
"Nadamo se da će ove informacije rezultirati time da ljudi ne organiziraju veće događaje i da preispitaju svoje sudjelovanje u njima", rekao je Weitz.
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Ako vas danas desetero sjedi za stolom u Pragu, rizik da je najmanje jedna osoba zaražena koronavirusom iznosi 58 posto. U Parizu je rizik 32, a u Washingtonu 18 posto.
Taj ćete izračun dobiti zahvaljujući internetskom alatu koji je razvila skupina američkih znanstvenika i omogućuje ljudima da procijene rizik od zaraze na okupljanjima.
Matematika je jednostavna i temelji se na službenim podacima o širenju pandemije u realnom vremenu.
Autori su znanstvenici s Tehnološkog instituta u Georgiji, a njihova je metodologija dobila potvrdu objavom u prestižnom časopisu Nature.
Na stranici https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/ zasad se rizik da ste u društvu zaraženog može izračunati za Sjedinjene Države (po okruzima) i za dio europskih zemalja (po njihovim regijama).
Model uzima u obzir činjenicu da je stvaran broj zaraženih pet do deset puta veći od broja pozitivnih testova, pa korisnik može izabrati jednu od te dvije hipoteze za svoju računicu. Također može birati želi li društvo od pet, deset, pedeset, sto pa čak i 5000 ljudi.
Autori su zauzeli konzervativan pristup pa računaju da je zaražena osoba pozitivna deset dana, rekao je glavni tvorac programa Joshua Weitz.
Epidemiolozi u stvarnosti računaju da je osoba zarazna kraće, pet do šest dana, unatoč tomu što je rezidualna prisutnost virusa u organizmu dulja.
Autori napominju da njihov model samo izračunava vjerojatnost da je netko u vašem društvu zaražen, a ne i kolika je vjerojatnost da ćete se i vi zaraziti jer to ovisi o previše varijabli, poput nošenja maske i prozračivanja prostorije.
"Nadamo se da će ove informacije rezultirati time da ljudi ne organiziraju veće događaje i da preispitaju svoje sudjelovanje u njima", rekao je Weitz.
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15. svibanj 2024 12:51
