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Mogućnosti zabrane uvoza ruske nafte kataputirale su cijenu barela na rekordne razine, ali i izglednim otvorili mogućnost da, ovisna o uvoznim energentima, Europa potone u recesiju – piše BUKA Magazin.

SAD namjerava zabraniti uvoz nafte iz Rusije, Europska komisija najavila je postupno smanjivanje kupnje, no svi čekaju kontrapotez Moskve, odnosno kako će Vladimir Putin (ekonomski) uzvratiti. Europska središnja banka danas bi trebala predstaviti svoje projekcije inflacije i gospodarskog rasta, a na njima kontinuirano rade i u Hrvatskoj narodnoj banci.

“Neizvjesnost je tako ogromna da je teško vjerodostojno prognozirati bilo kakva kretanja, čak i u kratkom roku”, rekao nam je glavni ekonomist HNB-a Vedran Šošić.

Za ilustraciju, objašnjava da je prekid opskrbe naftom događaj izvan povijesnog iskustva, a energenti su jedna od najvažnijih ulaznih varijabli za prognoze kretanja gospodarstva i razine cijena.

Vlada je zakasnila

Željko Lovrinčević s Ekonomskog instituta očekuje da će problemi u opskrbi energentima pogurati inflaciju u eurozoni između 5, vjerojatno i prema 6 posto, daleko iznad ECB-ovog cilja od 2 posto.

“U pojedinim zemljama inflacija bi mogla dosegnuti i 15 do 20 posto, ovisno o strukturi gospodarstva”, kaže Lovrinčević. Smatra da je Vlada Andreja Plenkovića zakasnila s intervencijama u cijene energenata.

“Do 1. travnja glavnina rasta cijena nafte i plina bit će u najvećoj mjeri ugrađena u cijene prijevoza, troškova proizvodnje i energenata. Realno ostaje prostor samo za korekcije cijena plina kućanstvima”, napominje.

Podsjetimo, Vlada je intervencije ciljala za početak travnja, budući da je izvedba javnih financija u prvom kvartalu nužna za evaluaciju u procesu uvođenja eura.

Ruski plin čini 17 posto svjetske potrošnje, no Europa se na Rusiju oslanja za čak 40 posto svojih potreba. Najizloženija je lokomotiva europskog gospodarstva, Njemačka.

“Vrlo je vjerojatno da će Njemačka zbog autoindustrije već u drugom kvartalu biti na pragu recesije, samo je pitanje koliko će za sobom povući zemalja”, kaže Lovrinčević.

Skok inflacije zbog pritiska cijena energenata donijet će negativne efekte na kupovnu moć diljem Europe i reperkusije na sve segmente života i gospodarstva. “Dolazimo do toga da dio dobara više veće biti raspoloživ jednom dijelu srednjeg sloja društva, tako da trajna potrošna dobra postaju investicija”, napominje.

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John Macdougall
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Tri scenarija

Bloomberg je analizirao tri moguća scenarija za Europu. Prvi pretpostavlja brzu deeskalaciju sukoba u Ukrajini te povratak cijena plina prema 100 eura za megavatsat te 100 dolara za barel nafte.

U tom slučaju inflacija u eurozoni bi blago porasla, rast BDP-a malo uporio, a ECB ostala pri namjeri da kamatne stope podigne u prosincu. Drugi scenarij, koji se trenutno čini kao bazni, pretpostavlja dugotrajniji sukob u kojem SAD i Europa održavaju sankcije, a Rusija na njih odgovara protumjerama.

U tom slučaju plin bi dosegnuo 200 eura za megavatsat, a nafta 130 dolara za barel što bi poguralo inflaciju za 1,5 postotni bod u eurozoni reducirajući kupovnu moć kućanstava. U kombiniranom udaru na trgovinu rezultat bi bio bitno usporeniji rast što bi povećanje kamatnjaka skinulo s dnevnog reda ove godine.

U trećem scenariju, Bloomberg pretpostavlja da Rusija prekida opskrbu plina Europi, što bi uzrokovalo pad od 3 postotna boda BDP-a, a moguće i više zbog neizvjesnosti, trgovinskih ograničenja i oštrijih uvjeta financiranja. Tada bi eurozona potonula u recesiju, a ECB vjerojatno posegnula za novim monetarnim popuštanjem – piše BUKA Magazin.

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Mogućnosti zabrane uvoza ruske nafte kataputirale su cijenu barela na rekordne razine, ali i izglednim otvorili mogućnost da, ovisna o uvoznim energentima, Europa potone u recesiju – piše BUKA Magazin.

SAD namjerava zabraniti uvoz nafte iz Rusije, Europska komisija najavila je postupno smanjivanje kupnje, no svi čekaju kontrapotez Moskve, odnosno kako će Vladimir Putin (ekonomski) uzvratiti. Europska središnja banka danas bi trebala predstaviti svoje projekcije inflacije i gospodarskog rasta, a na njima kontinuirano rade i u Hrvatskoj narodnoj banci.

“Neizvjesnost je tako ogromna da je teško vjerodostojno prognozirati bilo kakva kretanja, čak i u kratkom roku”, rekao nam je glavni ekonomist HNB-a Vedran Šošić.

Za ilustraciju, objašnjava da je prekid opskrbe naftom događaj izvan povijesnog iskustva, a energenti su jedna od najvažnijih ulaznih varijabli za prognoze kretanja gospodarstva i razine cijena.

Vlada je zakasnila

Željko Lovrinčević s Ekonomskog instituta očekuje da će problemi u opskrbi energentima pogurati inflaciju u eurozoni između 5, vjerojatno i prema 6 posto, daleko iznad ECB-ovog cilja od 2 posto.

“U pojedinim zemljama inflacija bi mogla dosegnuti i 15 do 20 posto, ovisno o strukturi gospodarstva”, kaže Lovrinčević. Smatra da je Vlada Andreja Plenkovića zakasnila s intervencijama u cijene energenata.

“Do 1. travnja glavnina rasta cijena nafte i plina bit će u najvećoj mjeri ugrađena u cijene prijevoza, troškova proizvodnje i energenata. Realno ostaje prostor samo za korekcije cijena plina kućanstvima”, napominje.

Podsjetimo, Vlada je intervencije ciljala za početak travnja, budući da je izvedba javnih financija u prvom kvartalu nužna za evaluaciju u procesu uvođenja eura.

Ruski plin čini 17 posto svjetske potrošnje, no Europa se na Rusiju oslanja za čak 40 posto svojih potreba. Najizloženija je lokomotiva europskog gospodarstva, Njemačka.

“Vrlo je vjerojatno da će Njemačka zbog autoindustrije već u drugom kvartalu biti na pragu recesije, samo je pitanje koliko će za sobom povući zemalja”, kaže Lovrinčević.

Skok inflacije zbog pritiska cijena energenata donijet će negativne efekte na kupovnu moć diljem Europe i reperkusije na sve segmente života i gospodarstva. “Dolazimo do toga da dio dobara više veće biti raspoloživ jednom dijelu srednjeg sloja društva, tako da trajna potrošna dobra postaju investicija”, napominje.

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John Macdougall
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Tri scenarija

Bloomberg je analizirao tri moguća scenarija za Europu. Prvi pretpostavlja brzu deeskalaciju sukoba u Ukrajini te povratak cijena plina prema 100 eura za megavatsat te 100 dolara za barel nafte.

U tom slučaju inflacija u eurozoni bi blago porasla, rast BDP-a malo uporio, a ECB ostala pri namjeri da kamatne stope podigne u prosincu. Drugi scenarij, koji se trenutno čini kao bazni, pretpostavlja dugotrajniji sukob u kojem SAD i Europa održavaju sankcije, a Rusija na njih odgovara protumjerama.

U tom slučaju plin bi dosegnuo 200 eura za megavatsat, a nafta 130 dolara za barel što bi poguralo inflaciju za 1,5 postotni bod u eurozoni reducirajući kupovnu moć kućanstava. U kombiniranom udaru na trgovinu rezultat bi bio bitno usporeniji rast što bi povećanje kamatnjaka skinulo s dnevnog reda ove godine.

U trećem scenariju, Bloomberg pretpostavlja da Rusija prekida opskrbu plina Europi, što bi uzrokovalo pad od 3 postotna boda BDP-a, a moguće i više zbog neizvjesnosti, trgovinskih ograničenja i oštrijih uvjeta financiranja. Tada bi eurozona potonula u recesiju, a ECB vjerojatno posegnula za novim monetarnim popuštanjem – piše BUKA Magazin.

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John Macdougall

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SvijetEKONOMSKA PREDVIĐANJA

Hoće li Europa potonuti u duboku recesiju? Tri su izgledna scenarija, profesor s Ekonomije kaže da inflacija ovisi o jednome: ‘Njemačka će biti na pragu, ali ostaje pitanje...‘

Piše PSD
16. ožujka 2022. - 09:37
21278766
PREMIUM

Mogućnosti zabrane uvoza ruske nafte kataputirale su cijenu barela na rekordne razine, ali i izglednim otvorili mogućnost da, ovisna o uvoznim energentima, Europa potone u recesiju – piše BUKA Magazin.

SAD namjerava zabraniti uvoz nafte iz Rusije, Europska komisija najavila je postupno smanjivanje kupnje, no svi čekaju kontrapotez Moskve, odnosno kako će Vladimir Putin (ekonomski) uzvratiti. Europska središnja banka danas bi trebala predstaviti svoje projekcije inflacije i gospodarskog rasta, a na njima kontinuirano rade i u Hrvatskoj narodnoj banci.

“Neizvjesnost je tako ogromna da je teško vjerodostojno prognozirati bilo kakva kretanja, čak i u kratkom roku”, rekao nam je glavni ekonomist HNB-a Vedran Šošić.

Za ilustraciju, objašnjava da je prekid opskrbe naftom...

#EKONOMSKE PROJEKCIJE#CIJENA PLINA#RAT U UKRAJINI #INFLACIJA#EU#RUSIJA#SAD
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18. svibanj 2024 22:49