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stdClass Object ( [id] => 1067947 [title] => Seizmolog Marijan Herak: Petrinjski je kraj pogodio potres koji se dogodi jednom u 100 tisuća godina! Još jači, treći udar nije izgledan [alias] => seizmolog-marijan-herak-petrinjski-je-kraj-pogodio-potres-koji-se-dogodi-jednom-u-100-tisuca-godina-jos-jaci-treci-udar-nije-izgledan [catid] => 142 [published] => 1 [introtext] => [fulltext] =>

Prema tumačenju Marijana Heraka, uglednog seizmologa s Geofizičkog odsjeka PMF-a, stanovništvo Petrinje, Gline, Siska i okolice možda je imalo povijesnu nesreću da ih je pogodio najekstremniji mogući potres koji se na ovom području može dogoditi samo jednom u stotinu tisuća godina.

Gostujući na televiziji N1, znanstvenik je upozorio kako je njegova struka dosad živjela u uvjerenju da je maksimalni potres na području tzv. Pokupskog rasjeda upravo snage od 6,2 do 6,3 stupnja po Richteru. Takva maksimalna snaga pomicanja zemljina tla projicirana je u svim dosad relevantnim seizmološkim tablicama.

- Taj potres koji mi računamo da je krajnje snage obično se tretira da je doslovno maksimalan i da se događa ekstremno rijetko, recimo jednom u 100.000 godina. Moguće je da smo baš imali nesreću pa da smo sad imali taj potres. Međutim, podsjećam da smo u ovom području već imali jedan od najpoznatijih svjetskih potresa: 1909. godine bio je veliki pokupski potres koji je u Zagrebu tada također rušio dimnjake. On je imao nešto manju magnitudu, oko 5,8 do možda 6 stupnjeva, ali baš na temelju njega je Andrija Mohorovičić napravio svoje veliko svjetsko otkriće – kazao je Marijan Herak za N1.

Slavni hrvatski geofizičar Andrija Mohorovičić je tad posebno unaprijedio spoznaje o mehanizmu rasprostiranja valova bližih potresa kroz Zemlju. Tom prilikom prvi je u svijetu na osnovi valova potresa utvrdio plohu diskontinuiteta brzina, koja dijeli koru od plašta Zemlje i koja je njemu u čast nazvana Mohorovičićev diskontinuitet.

Tumačeći kako je i vjerojatnost situacije u kojoj nakon prvog velikog udara slijedi još jači potres u praksi razmjerno mala, Marijan Herak je konstatirao da se to ipak događa: ista situacija bila je i u Zagrebu 1905., s epicentrom u Kašini.Tjedan dana prije Božića 1905. dogodio se potres magnitude oko 5,  da bi se 2. siječnja sljedeće godine isto dogodio potres još veće magnitude koji je oštetio Zagreb, ali još više sela oko Kašine. I u Banjoj Luci se 1969. dogodio takav slijed potresa, obrnut od uobičajenog.

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Seizmolog Marijan Herak
 
Vjekoslav Skledar/Cropix
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- Ima puno takvih slučajeva, ali su ipak rjeđi nego onda kad je prvi udar najjači. Vjerojatnost za to je mala, ali da imate vjerojatnost pet ili 10 posto šanse dobiti na lutriji, sigurno biste kupili takvu srećku, kazao je Herak.

Na pitanje novinara može li se dogoditi da nakon dva jaka udara potresa uslijedi treći koji bi bio najjači, Herak je odgovorio da takvu situaciju naši dostupni katalozi potresa ne pamte.

Nitko se ne sjeća da se nakon potresa magnitude 6,2 dogodio još jači potres. On se, ipak, ogradio kako su čovjekova iskustva o procesima ispod zemljine kore kratka i nepotpuna. Sve ljudske spoznaje ograničene su na kraći vremenski period, dok su potresi geološka bića i pojave koje žive u drugom sustavu vremena. Za njih je naših jadnih 100, 200 ili 300 godina običan treptaj oka - upozorio je znanstvenik s Geofizičkog zavoda PMF-a.

Objasnio je i kako potres u Petrinji ne može prouzročiti potres koji se, primjerice, u Zagrebu ionako ne bi dogodio uslijed geoloških kauzalnosti. On ga može samo eventualno isprovocirati koji dan ranije.

Postoji razlika u zemljinim rasjedima u Zagrebu odnosu na onaj u Pokuplju, protumačio je Herak. U Zagrebu egzistira reversni rasjed u kojemu rasjedna krila klize jedno niz drugo.

U petrinjskom kraju se, pak, dogodio potres na rasjedu s pomakom po pružanju, kod kojega se rasjedna krila gibaju jedan pokraj drugoga.

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Goran Mehkek/Cropix
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Prema tumačenju Marijana Heraka, uglednog seizmologa s Geofizičkog odsjeka PMF-a, stanovništvo Petrinje, Gline, Siska i okolice možda je imalo povijesnu nesreću da ih je pogodio najekstremniji mogući potres koji se na ovom području može dogoditi samo jednom u stotinu tisuća godina.

Gostujući na televiziji N1, znanstvenik je upozorio kako je njegova struka dosad živjela u uvjerenju da je maksimalni potres na području tzv. Pokupskog rasjeda upravo snage od 6,2 do 6,3 stupnja po Richteru. Takva maksimalna snaga pomicanja zemljina tla projicirana je u svim dosad relevantnim seizmološkim tablicama.

- Taj potres koji mi računamo da je krajnje snage obično se tretira da je doslovno maksimalan i da se događa ekstremno rijetko, recimo jednom u 100.000 godina. Moguće je da smo baš imali nesreću pa da smo sad imali taj potres. Međutim, podsjećam da smo u ovom području već imali jedan od najpoznatijih svjetskih potresa: 1909. godine bio je veliki pokupski potres koji je u Zagrebu tada također rušio dimnjake. On je imao nešto manju magnitudu, oko 5,8 do možda 6 stupnjeva, ali baš na temelju njega je Andrija Mohorovičić napravio svoje veliko svjetsko otkriće – kazao je Marijan Herak za N1.

Slavni hrvatski geofizičar Andrija Mohorovičić je tad posebno unaprijedio spoznaje o mehanizmu rasprostiranja valova bližih potresa kroz Zemlju. Tom prilikom prvi je u svijetu na osnovi valova potresa utvrdio plohu diskontinuiteta brzina, koja dijeli koru od plašta Zemlje i koja je njemu u čast nazvana Mohorovičićev diskontinuitet.

Tumačeći kako je i vjerojatnost situacije u kojoj nakon prvog velikog udara slijedi još jači potres u praksi razmjerno mala, Marijan Herak je konstatirao da se to ipak događa: ista situacija bila je i u Zagrebu 1905., s epicentrom u Kašini.Tjedan dana prije Božića 1905. dogodio se potres magnitude oko 5,  da bi se 2. siječnja sljedeće godine isto dogodio potres još veće magnitude koji je oštetio Zagreb, ali još više sela oko Kašine. I u Banjoj Luci se 1969. dogodio takav slijed potresa, obrnut od uobičajenog.

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Seizmolog Marijan Herak
 
Vjekoslav Skledar/Cropix
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- Ima puno takvih slučajeva, ali su ipak rjeđi nego onda kad je prvi udar najjači. Vjerojatnost za to je mala, ali da imate vjerojatnost pet ili 10 posto šanse dobiti na lutriji, sigurno biste kupili takvu srećku, kazao je Herak.

Na pitanje novinara može li se dogoditi da nakon dva jaka udara potresa uslijedi treći koji bi bio najjači, Herak je odgovorio da takvu situaciju naši dostupni katalozi potresa ne pamte.

Nitko se ne sjeća da se nakon potresa magnitude 6,2 dogodio još jači potres. On se, ipak, ogradio kako su čovjekova iskustva o procesima ispod zemljine kore kratka i nepotpuna. Sve ljudske spoznaje ograničene su na kraći vremenski period, dok su potresi geološka bića i pojave koje žive u drugom sustavu vremena. Za njih je naših jadnih 100, 200 ili 300 godina običan treptaj oka - upozorio je znanstvenik s Geofizičkog zavoda PMF-a.

Objasnio je i kako potres u Petrinji ne može prouzročiti potres koji se, primjerice, u Zagrebu ionako ne bi dogodio uslijed geoloških kauzalnosti. On ga može samo eventualno isprovocirati koji dan ranije.

Postoji razlika u zemljinim rasjedima u Zagrebu odnosu na onaj u Pokuplju, protumačio je Herak. U Zagrebu egzistira reversni rasjed u kojemu rasjedna krila klize jedno niz drugo.

U petrinjskom kraju se, pak, dogodio potres na rasjedu s pomakom po pružanju, kod kojega se rasjedna krila gibaju jedan pokraj drugoga.

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Goran Mehkek/Cropix
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Vjekoslav Skledar/Cropix
Seizmolog Marijan Herak
 
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Seizmolog Marijan Herak: Petrinjski je kraj pogodio potres koji se dogodi jednom u 100 tisuća godina! Još jači, treći udar nije izgledan

Piše Davor Krile
31. prosinca 2020. - 14:18
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Goran Mehkek/Cropix

Prema tumačenju Marijana Heraka, uglednog seizmologa s Geofizičkog odsjeka PMF-a, stanovništvo Petrinje, Gline, Siska i okolice možda je imalo povijesnu nesreću da ih je pogodio najekstremniji mogući potres koji se na ovom području može dogoditi samo jednom u stotinu tisuća godina.

Gostujući na televiziji N1, znanstvenik je upozorio kako je njegova struka dosad živjela u uvjerenju da je maksimalni potres na području tzv. Pokupskog rasjeda upravo snage od 6,2 do 6,3 stupnja po Richteru. Takva maksimalna snaga pomicanja zemljina tla projicirana je u svim dosad relevantnim seizmološkim tablicama.

- Taj potres koji mi računamo da je krajnje snage obično se tretira da je doslovno maksimalan i da se događa ekstremno rijetko, recimo jednom u 100.000 godina. Moguće je da smo baš ima...

#POTRES 29.12. PETRINJA#SEIZMOLOG#MARIJAN HERAK#POTRES
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