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[title] => Lauc: Ovaj virus će ubiti puno ljudi, ali još je gore što puno karcinoma neće biti otkriveno na vrijeme, kardiovaskularne bolesti se manje prate...
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Sedam je mjeseci iskustva s koronavirusom. Treba razlikovati pojmove smrtonosan i opasan. Znamo da je bitno manje smrtonosan nego što smo mislili u ožujku, istaknuo je u HTV-ovoj emisiji "Dobro jutro, Hrvatska" prof. dr. sc. Gordan Lauc, znanstvenik i član Znanstvenog savjeta Vlade RH.
- Ono što nam se dogodilo u ožujku je da se pandemija širila na vrlo sličan način kao što se širi sada i u Bergamu je možda čak 60% ljudi bilo zaraženo koronavirusom. I one koje smo vidjeli da umiru je posljedica velikog broja zaraženih. A mi smo malo testirali, pa smo potvrdili malo slučajeva, rekao je Gordan Lauc.
Koliko je postotak smrtnosti ipak se kaže, ne može točno znati, jer je broj različit ljeti i zimi. Ono što sada vidimo s novim brojem zaraženih u Europi smrtnost raste. U Češkoj već tjedan dana 150 ljudi dnevno umire.
- Ovaj virus može ubiti, ne zato što će ubiti puno ljudi, jer 99,5% će preživjeti ali ako se zarazi puno ljudi, a trenutno je u Hrvatskoj zaraženo 100.000 do 150.000 ljudi, nažalost puno ljudi će umrijeti. Ono što vidimo u KB Dubrava, jako puno ljudi je hospitalizirano i umire, rekao je Lauc.
Zdravstveni radnici su preopterećeni, a hoće li biti problema da drugi bolesnici prime adekvatnu zdravstvenu skrb, Lauc odgovara da mi samo novih karcinoma detektiramo oko 2000 mjesečno, što znači da tada 4000 nismo na vrijeme otkrili.
- Kardiovaskularne bolesti se manje prate, manje djece smo cijepili. Zdravstvene posljedice ovoga će biti ogromne, dodaje. Ali treba razlikovati što je doista uzrokovao virus, a što su učinile preventivne mjere.
Trebamo paziti, ističe, da našim mjerama kojima pokušavamo spriječiti širenje virusa ne napravimo veću štetu nego korist.
Trebaju li svi ti ljudi završiti u bolnici, kaže da smo u ožujku hospitalizirali i ljude koji su pozitivni i bez razloga.
- Danas koji su hospitalizirani, doista trebaju biti tamo. Sve je više teškog oblika, ljudi imaju upale pluća, trebaju kisik, treba im njega.
Stanje društva je napeto i nesigurno, znamo da su neke djelatnosti na rubu izdržljivosti kao zdravstveni djelatnici ili oni u školama, dakle, imamo ugrozu preopterećenosti rada u visokorizičnim uvjetima. dr. sc. Krunoslav Nikodem, sociolog i profesor na Filozofskom fakultetu Sveučilišta u Zagrebu.
- S druge strane imamo djelatnosti koje su ugrožene zbog nedostatka rada, kao što je ugostiteljstvo. Kroz ove svakodnevne brojke stvara se određena psihoza i na neki način su ti izvještaji nužno zlo jer barem stvaraju privid da netko time pokušava upravljati pa imamo osjećaj reda u svemu tome.
Kako psihološki ovo djeluje na mlade, Nikodem kaže da ih nismo socijalizirali za teškoće, ali trebamo čekati da ovo prođe.
Osoba je nakon što preboli koronavirus sigurna je sljedeća tri mjeseca, sljedećih tri do šest je djelomično zaštićena, što će biti nakon toga, ne znam, dodaje Lauc.
- Ono što vidimo zadnjih tjedan dana, rast je stao. Mi smo se zaustavili na brojevima nešto preko dvije tisuće dnevno. To se meni čini i preoptimistično, naša modeliranja su pokazivala da bi mogli prijeći 3000 dnevno, možda i blizu 4000 slučajeva dnevno što upućuje na činjenicu da su sadašnje mjere dovoljne, ali je ključno kako će se ljudi ponašati. Danas su rizik zatvoreni prostor, virus se šiti aerosolno, moramo prozračivati jer nije svejedno hoćemo li udahnuti jedan ili milijardu kopija virusa, rekao je Lauc gostujući u HTV-ovoj emisiji "Dobro jutro, Hrvatska".
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[cleanTitle] => Lauc: Ovaj virus će ubiti puno ljudi, ali još je gore što puno karcinoma neće biti otkriveno na vrijeme, kardiovaskularne bolesti se manje prate...
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Sedam je mjeseci iskustva s koronavirusom. Treba razlikovati pojmove smrtonosan i opasan. Znamo da je bitno manje smrtonosan nego što smo mislili u ožujku, istaknuo je u HTV-ovoj emisiji "Dobro jutro, Hrvatska" prof. dr. sc. Gordan Lauc, znanstvenik i član Znanstvenog savjeta Vlade RH.
- Ono što nam se dogodilo u ožujku je da se pandemija širila na vrlo sličan način kao što se širi sada i u Bergamu je možda čak 60% ljudi bilo zaraženo koronavirusom. I one koje smo vidjeli da umiru je posljedica velikog broja zaraženih. A mi smo malo testirali, pa smo potvrdili malo slučajeva, rekao je Gordan Lauc.
Koliko je postotak smrtnosti ipak se kaže, ne može točno znati, jer je broj različit ljeti i zimi. Ono što sada vidimo s novim brojem zaraženih u Europi smrtnost raste. U Češkoj već tjedan dana 150 ljudi dnevno umire.
- Ovaj virus može ubiti, ne zato što će ubiti puno ljudi, jer 99,5% će preživjeti ali ako se zarazi puno ljudi, a trenutno je u Hrvatskoj zaraženo 100.000 do 150.000 ljudi, nažalost puno ljudi će umrijeti. Ono što vidimo u KB Dubrava, jako puno ljudi je hospitalizirano i umire, rekao je Lauc.
Zdravstveni radnici su preopterećeni, a hoće li biti problema da drugi bolesnici prime adekvatnu zdravstvenu skrb, Lauc odgovara da mi samo novih karcinoma detektiramo oko 2000 mjesečno, što znači da tada 4000 nismo na vrijeme otkrili.
- Kardiovaskularne bolesti se manje prate, manje djece smo cijepili. Zdravstvene posljedice ovoga će biti ogromne, dodaje. Ali treba razlikovati što je doista uzrokovao virus, a što su učinile preventivne mjere.
Trebamo paziti, ističe, da našim mjerama kojima pokušavamo spriječiti širenje virusa ne napravimo veću štetu nego korist.
Trebaju li svi ti ljudi završiti u bolnici, kaže da smo u ožujku hospitalizirali i ljude koji su pozitivni i bez razloga.
- Danas koji su hospitalizirani, doista trebaju biti tamo. Sve je više teškog oblika, ljudi imaju upale pluća, trebaju kisik, treba im njega.
Stanje društva je napeto i nesigurno, znamo da su neke djelatnosti na rubu izdržljivosti kao zdravstveni djelatnici ili oni u školama, dakle, imamo ugrozu preopterećenosti rada u visokorizičnim uvjetima. dr. sc. Krunoslav Nikodem, sociolog i profesor na Filozofskom fakultetu Sveučilišta u Zagrebu.
- S druge strane imamo djelatnosti koje su ugrožene zbog nedostatka rada, kao što je ugostiteljstvo. Kroz ove svakodnevne brojke stvara se određena psihoza i na neki način su ti izvještaji nužno zlo jer barem stvaraju privid da netko time pokušava upravljati pa imamo osjećaj reda u svemu tome.
Kako psihološki ovo djeluje na mlade, Nikodem kaže da ih nismo socijalizirali za teškoće, ali trebamo čekati da ovo prođe.
Osoba je nakon što preboli koronavirus sigurna je sljedeća tri mjeseca, sljedećih tri do šest je djelomično zaštićena, što će biti nakon toga, ne znam, dodaje Lauc.
- Ono što vidimo zadnjih tjedan dana, rast je stao. Mi smo se zaustavili na brojevima nešto preko dvije tisuće dnevno. To se meni čini i preoptimistično, naša modeliranja su pokazivala da bi mogli prijeći 3000 dnevno, možda i blizu 4000 slučajeva dnevno što upućuje na činjenicu da su sadašnje mjere dovoljne, ali je ključno kako će se ljudi ponašati. Danas su rizik zatvoreni prostor, virus se šiti aerosolno, moramo prozračivati jer nije svejedno hoćemo li udahnuti jedan ili milijardu kopija virusa, rekao je Lauc gostujući u HTV-ovoj emisiji "Dobro jutro, Hrvatska".
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14. svibanj 2024 22:52
