SD Dojavi
OSMRTNICE
PRETPLATA
PREMIUM
stdClass Object ( [id] => 1141299 [title] => Američki institut objavio predviđanja, evo koliko bi moglo biti mrtvih u Hrvatskoj već početkom prosinca. Imunolog Trobonjača: ‘Već i jedna doza smanjuje smrtnost...‘ [alias] => americki-institut-objavio-predvidanja-evo-koliko-bi-moglo-biti-mrtvih-u-hrvatskoj-vec-pocetkom-prosinca-imunolog-trobonjaca-vec-i-jedna-doza-smanjuje-smrtnost [catid] => 142 [published] => 1 [introtext] => [fulltext] =>

Neovisni institut za metriku i procjene u zdravstvu (IHME) iz Washingtona objavio je nedavno u svojoj pandemijskoj prognozi crnu procjenu za našu zemlju. Prema njihovim izračunima, do veljače iduće godine Hrvatska bi mogla lako dosegnuti broj od čak 14 560 umrlih od covida. Preciznije, u iduća dva i pol mjeseca naviještaju nam smrt još oko pet tisuća ljudi, što znači da bi nam do veljače u prosjeku svakoga dana moglo umirati oko 65 ljudi dnevno.

Američki znanstvenici predviđaju da ćemo maksimalni broj dnevnih slučajeva zaraze dosegnuti do polovice tekućeg mjeseca. Maksimalni broj dnevnih smrti, od čak 110 umrlih u 24 sata, mogli bi dosegnuti oko 7. prosinca, za otprilike mjesec dana – izračunao je američki IHME. Usporedbe radi, sredinom prosinca lani bilježili smo maksimalni broj smrti od oko 90 ljudi na dan.

Premda su precizne predikcije smrtnosti nemoguće i krajnje nezahvalne, riječki imunolog prof. dr. Zlatko Trobonjača napominje kako su američki znanstvenici svoje crne izračune nesumnjivo utemeljili na parametrima hrvatske skromne procijepljenosti. U dobro procijepljenim zemljama usprkos širenju virusa smrtnost posvuda pada i uglavnom ne doseže nikakve alarmantne brojke. Što se tiče cijepljenih, lošije prolazi tek starija populacija i imunokompromitirane osobe  složenih komorbiditeta.

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image
Matija Djanjesic/Cropix
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Ubrzanjem dinamike cijepljenja kakvoj svjedočimo zadnjih dana teško se može naprečac umanjiti crne trendove, no već i primitak jedne doze cjepiva za 15-ak dana itekako utječe na čovjekovu bolju imunost i naposljetku smanjuje smrtnost – ističe za Slobodnu prof. Trobonjača. Ljudi koji se sad cijepe po prvi put punu će imunost dosegnuti tek negdje oko Božića. U taj kalendar se uklapa i američka projekcija da ćemo najveći broj mrtvih imati početkom prosinca, jer u klasičnom epidemijskom uzorku od porasta incidencije do manjka mjesta u mrtvačnicama obično dolazi u roku od pet tjedana.

Uz cijepljenje, još je jedan bitan element koji snažno utječe na porast broja umrlih uslijed svakog epidemijskog vala, napominje prof. Trobonjača, a to je činjenica da smrtnost izravno korelira s padom i zagušenjem zdravstvenoga sustava. Kako se može neslužbeno saznati, bolnički kapaciteti hrvatskoga zdravstva već su prilično napregnuti i trenutno su negdje na njegovoj donjoj granici.

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image
Projekcija Instituta IHME
Ihme
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Neovisni institut za metriku i procjene u zdravstvu (IHME) iz Washingtona objavio je nedavno u svojoj pandemijskoj prognozi crnu procjenu za našu zemlju. Prema njihovim izračunima, do veljače iduće godine Hrvatska bi mogla lako dosegnuti broj od čak 14 560 umrlih od covida. Preciznije, u iduća dva i pol mjeseca naviještaju nam smrt još oko pet tisuća ljudi, što znači da bi nam do veljače u prosjeku svakoga dana moglo umirati oko 65 ljudi dnevno.

Američki znanstvenici predviđaju da ćemo maksimalni broj dnevnih slučajeva zaraze dosegnuti do polovice tekućeg mjeseca. Maksimalni broj dnevnih smrti, od čak 110 umrlih u 24 sata, mogli bi dosegnuti oko 7. prosinca, za otprilike mjesec dana – izračunao je američki IHME. Usporedbe radi, sredinom prosinca lani bilježili smo maksimalni broj smrti od oko 90 ljudi na dan.

Premda su precizne predikcije smrtnosti nemoguće i krajnje nezahvalne, riječki imunolog prof. dr. Zlatko Trobonjača napominje kako su američki znanstvenici svoje crne izračune nesumnjivo utemeljili na parametrima hrvatske skromne procijepljenosti. U dobro procijepljenim zemljama usprkos širenju virusa smrtnost posvuda pada i uglavnom ne doseže nikakve alarmantne brojke. Što se tiče cijepljenih, lošije prolazi tek starija populacija i imunokompromitirane osobe  složenih komorbiditeta.

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Matija Djanjesic/Cropix
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Ubrzanjem dinamike cijepljenja kakvoj svjedočimo zadnjih dana teško se može naprečac umanjiti crne trendove, no već i primitak jedne doze cjepiva za 15-ak dana itekako utječe na čovjekovu bolju imunost i naposljetku smanjuje smrtnost – ističe za Slobodnu prof. Trobonjača. Ljudi koji se sad cijepe po prvi put punu će imunost dosegnuti tek negdje oko Božića. U taj kalendar se uklapa i američka projekcija da ćemo najveći broj mrtvih imati početkom prosinca, jer u klasičnom epidemijskom uzorku od porasta incidencije do manjka mjesta u mrtvačnicama obično dolazi u roku od pet tjedana.

Uz cijepljenje, još je jedan bitan element koji snažno utječe na porast broja umrlih uslijed svakog epidemijskog vala, napominje prof. Trobonjača, a to je činjenica da smrtnost izravno korelira s padom i zagušenjem zdravstvenoga sustava. Kako se može neslužbeno saznati, bolnički kapaciteti hrvatskoga zdravstva već su prilično napregnuti i trenutno su negdje na njegovoj donjoj granici.

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Projekcija Instituta IHME
Ihme
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Sem Van Der Wal Matija Djanjesic/Cropix Ihme
Ihme
Projekcija Instituta IHME
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HrvatskaZemlja smrti

Američki institut objavio predviđanja, evo koliko bi moglo biti mrtvih u Hrvatskoj već početkom prosinca. Imunolog Trobonjača: ‘Već i jedna doza smanjuje smrtnost...‘

Piše Davor Krile
8. studenog 2021. - 14:39
19916948
PREMIUM
Galerija
Sem Van Der Wal

Neovisni institut za metriku i procjene u zdravstvu (IHME) iz Washingtona objavio je nedavno u svojoj pandemijskoj prognozi crnu procjenu za našu zemlju. Prema njihovim izračunima, do veljače iduće godine Hrvatska bi mogla lako dosegnuti broj od čak 14 560 umrlih od covida. Preciznije, u iduća dva i pol mjeseca naviještaju nam smrt još oko pet tisuća ljudi, što znači da bi nam do veljače u prosjeku svakoga dana moglo umirati oko 65 ljudi dnevno.

Američki znanstvenici predviđaju da ćemo maksimalni broj dnevnih slučajeva zaraze dosegnuti do polovice tekućeg mjeseca. Maksimalni broj dnevnih smrti, od čak 110 umrlih u 24 sata, mogli bi dosegnuti oko 7. prosinca, za otprilike mjesec dana – izračunao je američki IHME. Usporedbe radi, sredinom prosinca lani bilježili smo...

#ZLATKO TROBONJAČA#SMRTNOST OD COVIDA-19#HRVATSKA
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14. svibanj 2024 11:09