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Prema preliminarnoj procjeni, Njemačka u posljednjem kvartalu 2023. bilježi pad BDP-a od 0,3 posto u odnosu na treći kvartal. Pritom glavni pokazatelji poslovne klime ne signaliziraju zaokret na bolje, što znači da se pad BDP-a nastavlja i tijekom prvog kvartala ove godine, piše glavni ekonomist HUP-a Hrvoje Stojić u Fokusu tjedna.

S obzirom na to da je realni BDP stagnirao u trećem kvartalu, umjesto pada kao što je ranije objavljeno, uobičajena međunarodna definicija recesije još nije ispunjena. Aktualna recesija mogla bi potrajati tijekom prve polovine 2024. godine, nakon čega ne očekujemo osjetan oporavak dok god ESB značajno ne snizi kamatne stope.

– Zato u ovoj godini očekujemo stagnaciju ekonomije cijelog euro područja (rast od jedva 0,1 posto), dok u Njemačkoj očekujemo pad BDP-a od 0,3 posto. Nedavni pad novih tvorničkih narudžbi sve više utječe na industrijsku proizvodnju, jer ankete pokazuju da su tvrtke uvelike izvršile zaostale narudžbe iz razdoblja pandemije koronavirusa – prenosi Lider tvrdnje Hrvoja Stojića.

U međuvremenu, industrijska proizvodnja također bilježi pad. Zabrinjavajuće je da je njemačka ekonomija jedna od rijetkih, koja nakon izbijanja pandemije jedva raste. To je rijetka pojava i pomalo podsjeća na godine nakon pucanja američkog burzovnog mjehura u 2000. godini.

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Hrvoje Stojić

Josko Supic /Cropix
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Dok su tvrtke tada patile od pretjeranih ulaganja, upitnog investicijskog miksa i visokih razina duga, njemačka ekonomija je sada opterećena novim režimom kamatnih stopa, izgledima za trajno visoke cijene energije, gubitkom vjetra u leđa iz Kine te dugoročnom erozijom kvalitete Njemačke kao poslovne lokacije.

Tvrtke u ovom trenutku, navodi, imaju mnogo toga za probaviti, što ne sluti na dobro u pogledu značajnog oporavka nakon završetka recesije. Na tragu njemačkih slabosti, u prvoj se polovici ove godine očekuje daljnji pad robnog izvoza hrvatskih industrijskih tvrtki od oko pet posto nakon očekivanog pada od 12 posto na razini cijele 2023. godine.

Naročito su pogođeni hrvatski izvoz drvne industrije, energenata, poljoprivrednih kultura, metalnih proizvoda te električne opreme.

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Hrvoje Stojić

Josko Supic /Cropix ) ) [bgPosition] => [text] => {OCMSplitter}

Prema preliminarnoj procjeni, Njemačka u posljednjem kvartalu 2023. bilježi pad BDP-a od 0,3 posto u odnosu na treći kvartal. Pritom glavni pokazatelji poslovne klime ne signaliziraju zaokret na bolje, što znači da se pad BDP-a nastavlja i tijekom prvog kvartala ove godine, piše glavni ekonomist HUP-a Hrvoje Stojić u Fokusu tjedna.

S obzirom na to da je realni BDP stagnirao u trećem kvartalu, umjesto pada kao što je ranije objavljeno, uobičajena međunarodna definicija recesije još nije ispunjena. Aktualna recesija mogla bi potrajati tijekom prve polovine 2024. godine, nakon čega ne očekujemo osjetan oporavak dok god ESB značajno ne snizi kamatne stope.

– Zato u ovoj godini očekujemo stagnaciju ekonomije cijelog euro područja (rast od jedva 0,1 posto), dok u Njemačkoj očekujemo pad BDP-a od 0,3 posto. Nedavni pad novih tvorničkih narudžbi sve više utječe na industrijsku proizvodnju, jer ankete pokazuju da su tvrtke uvelike izvršile zaostale narudžbe iz razdoblja pandemije koronavirusa – prenosi Lider tvrdnje Hrvoja Stojića.

U međuvremenu, industrijska proizvodnja također bilježi pad. Zabrinjavajuće je da je njemačka ekonomija jedna od rijetkih, koja nakon izbijanja pandemije jedva raste. To je rijetka pojava i pomalo podsjeća na godine nakon pucanja američkog burzovnog mjehura u 2000. godini.

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image

Hrvoje Stojić

Josko Supic /Cropix
---

Dok su tvrtke tada patile od pretjeranih ulaganja, upitnog investicijskog miksa i visokih razina duga, njemačka ekonomija je sada opterećena novim režimom kamatnih stopa, izgledima za trajno visoke cijene energije, gubitkom vjetra u leđa iz Kine te dugoročnom erozijom kvalitete Njemačke kao poslovne lokacije.

Tvrtke u ovom trenutku, navodi, imaju mnogo toga za probaviti, što ne sluti na dobro u pogledu značajnog oporavka nakon završetka recesije. Na tragu njemačkih slabosti, u prvoj se polovici ove godine očekuje daljnji pad robnog izvoza hrvatskih industrijskih tvrtki od oko pet posto nakon očekivanog pada od 12 posto na razini cijele 2023. godine.

Naročito su pogođeni hrvatski izvoz drvne industrije, energenata, poljoprivrednih kultura, metalnih proizvoda te električne opreme.

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Tobias Schwarz/Afp Josko Supic /Cropix
Josko Supic /Cropix

Hrvoje Stojić
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Biznisanalitičar otkriva

Njemačka recesija ubrzava pad hrvatskog robnog izvoza: Evo i koje su djelatnosti najpogođenije

Piše vijesti sd
22. siječnja 2024. - 06:37
23492204
Tobias Schwarz/Afp

Prema preliminarnoj procjeni, Njemačka u posljednjem kvartalu 2023. bilježi pad BDP-a od 0,3 posto u odnosu na treći kvartal. Pritom glavni pokazatelji poslovne klime ne signaliziraju zaokret na bolje, što znači da se pad BDP-a nastavlja i tijekom prvog kvartala ove godine, piše glavni ekonomist HUP-a Hrvoje Stojić u Fokusu tjedna.

S obzirom na to da je realni BDP stagnirao u trećem kvartalu, umjesto pada kao što je ranije objavljeno, uobičajena međunarodna definicija recesije još nije ispunjena. Aktualna recesija mogla bi potrajati tijekom prve polovine 2024. godine, nakon čega ne očekujemo osjetan oporavak dok god ESB značajno ne snizi kamatne stope.

– Zato u ovoj godini očekujemo stagnaciju ekonomije cijelog euro područja (rast od jedva 0,1 posto), dok u Njemačkoj očekujemo pad BDP-a od 0,3 posto. Nedavni pad novih tvorničkih narudžbi sve više utječe na industrijsku proizvodnju, jer ankete pokazuju da su tvrtke uvelike izvršile zaostale narudžbe iz razdoblja pandemije koronavirusa – prenosi Lider tvrdnje Hrvoja Stojića.

U međuvremenu, industrijska proizvodnja također bilježi pad. Zabrinjavajuće je da je njemačka ekonomija jedna od rijetkih, koja nakon izbijanja pandemije jedva raste. To je rijetka pojava i pomalo podsjeća na godine nakon pucanja američkog burzovnog mjehura u 2000. godini.

image

Hrvoje Stojić

Josko Supic /Cropix

Dok su tvrtke tada patile od pretjeranih ulaganja, upitnog investicijskog miksa i visokih razina duga, njemačka ekonomija je sada opterećena novim režimom kamatnih stopa, izgledima za trajno visoke cijene energije, gubitkom vjetra u leđa iz Kine te dugoročnom erozijom kvalitete Njemačke kao poslovne lokacije.

Tvrtke u ovom trenutku, navodi, imaju mnogo toga za probaviti, što ne sluti na dobro u pogledu značajnog oporavka nakon završetka recesije. Na tragu njemačkih slabosti, u prvoj se polovici ove godine očekuje daljnji pad robnog izvoza hrvatskih industrijskih tvrtki od oko pet posto nakon očekivanog pada od 12 posto na razini cijele 2023. godine.

Naročito su pogođeni hrvatski izvoz drvne industrije, energenata, poljoprivrednih kultura, metalnih proizvoda te električne opreme.

#NJEMAČKA EKONOMIJA#IZVOZ, HRVATSKA#HRVOJE STOJIĆ
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12. svibanj 2024 17:11