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[title] => Ispituju Jadransku mikroploču i simuliraju potres iz 17. stoljeća! Hoće li opet zatresti Dubrovnik takvom jačinom?
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Gusta mreža seizmografa unaprjeđuje preciznost određivanja lokacije potresa i njegove magnitude što je temelj svake seizmološke analize, a građa i tektonika Jadranske mikroploče i njenih aktivnih rubova u središnjem Sredozemlju, jedna je od glavnih tema međunarodnog skupa incijative AdriaArray Wokshop 2023. koji se održava u Poslijediplomskom središtu Dubrovnik. Na skupu sudjeluju seizmolozi i geofizičari iz 22 države Europe. Predstavit će se dosadašnji rad na postavljanju velikog broja seizmoloških postaja u Jugoistočnoj Europi te dogovarati pravci istraživanja i konkretne suradnje.
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Doc. dr. sc. Josip Stipčević s Geofizičkog odsjeka Prirodoslovno matematičkog fakulteta u Zagrebu jedan je od organizatora skupa i ističe kako na njemu sudjeluju znanstvenici iz 50 različitih institucija koje se bave geoznanostima, a koje postavljaju veliki broj geostanica na području južne i istočne Europe, od Apenina sve do Ukrajine.
- Upravo Dubrovnik leži na granici tzv. Adria ploče koja je nekada bila puno veća i cijela se ova inicijativa i okupila kako bi istražila prošlost te nekada velike jadranske ploče koja je bila u središtu Mediterana, a koja je danas raznim procesima ‘pojedena‘ i spala na veličinu Jadranskog mora – kaže dr Stipčević.
Kaže kako i stručnjaci i građani svjesni koliko je dubrovačko područje trusno te da se iz ranijih potresa zna kako su potresi u Dubrovniku veliki potresi i da će se jednom ponovo dogoditi veliki potres sličan onome u 17. stoljeću.
- Svi seizmolozi ponavljamo kako moramo biti spremni za potrese, a rekao bih da Dubrovnik prilično dobro misli na to, no iako potres ne možemo predvidjeti, važno je da kada se potres dogodi sve službe budu spremne i sigurne i da nemamo potpuni kaos. Mislim da su ljudi ovdje svjesni kako je Dubrovnik seizmički ugrožen i da na to treba misliti – govori dr Stipčević.
- Potres koji se 1979. godine dogodio južnije od Dubrovnika on je bio velik potres kakav mi u Dubrovniku očekujemo. Ono što se dogodilo u Stonu 1996. bio je jak potres, na razini između zagrebačkog i petrinjskog potresa. To jest jak potres, ali ni blizu onome kakav je 1979. bio u Crnoj Gori i kakav je u 17. stoljeću bio u Dubrovniku. Kroz ovaj projekt postavljeno je već 1400 seizmoloških stanica. Na području Dalmacije s norveškim sveučilištem u Bergenu postavljeno je 13 novih postaja i planirano ih je postaviti još petnaestak. Seizmolozi iz Švicarske su u BiH postavili 20 stanica, a znanstvenici s PMF-a su u okviru projekta pri Hrvatskoj zakladi za znanost postavili sedam stanica na području Dubrovnika:
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- Gledamo gdje se i kako događaju potresi i kakva je budućnost i prošlost tektonike i tih procesa na ovom području - objašnjava dr. Josip Stipčević. - Istražujemo, mapiramo rasjede, gdje su aktivni i procjenjujemo gdje će se potres inicirati, na kojoj dubini, kako će se širiti potresna ploha itd. Kolegica koja sada radi doktorat, radi simulaciju velikog dubrovačkog potresa iz 17. stoljeća, da bi mi znali iz različitih scenarija procijeniti štete i na što trebamo paziti. Znamo gdje su aktivni rasjedi i kako se događaju potresi, a onda na temelju toga i svega što znamo pokušavamo simulirati što će se dogoditi kada se u budućnost takav potres dogodi… Primjerice, Stradun je nasip i kada se dogodi potres imate ampliciranu trešnju u tim nasutim dijelovima. To su sve detalji koji su važni i koje moramo čuti. Dubrovnik misli na to, i s kim god iz lokalne uprave razgovaramo svjesni su toga i izlaze nam u susret, pa su nam tako pomogli kod nalaženja lokacija za postavljanja seizmoloških postaja. Najnoviju smo postavili na Mljetu, a još i na Šipanu i u Radovčićima u Konavlima, no kako je područje Dubrovnika usko i razvučeno postavili smo zajedno s kolegama iz BiH tri postaje i u istočnoj Hercegovini, Bileći, Ljubinju i Nevesinju koja su nam iznimno važne za lociranje potresa na ovom području, a nadamo se da ćemo postaviti još tri, četiri postaje na ovom području u idućih nekoliko godina – govori dr Stipčević.
Skup je organiziran uz potporu ORFEUS-a (Observatories and Research Facilities for European Seismology) i EPOS-a (European Plate Observing System) kroz projekt EPSO-SP iz programa Obzor 2020, dok je lokalni organizator Geofizički odsjek Prirodoslovno-matematičkog fakulteta Sveučilišta u Zagrebu.
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Gusta mreža seizmografa unaprjeđuje preciznost određivanja lokacije potresa i njegove magnitude što je temelj svake seizmološke analize, a građa i tektonika Jadranske mikroploče i njenih aktivnih rubova u središnjem Sredozemlju, jedna je od glavnih tema međunarodnog skupa incijative AdriaArray Wokshop 2023. koji se održava u Poslijediplomskom središtu Dubrovnik. Na skupu sudjeluju seizmolozi i geofizičari iz 22 države Europe. Predstavit će se dosadašnji rad na postavljanju velikog broja seizmoloških postaja u Jugoistočnoj Europi te dogovarati pravci istraživanja i konkretne suradnje.
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Doc. dr. sc. Josip Stipčević s Geofizičkog odsjeka Prirodoslovno matematičkog fakulteta u Zagrebu jedan je od organizatora skupa i ističe kako na njemu sudjeluju znanstvenici iz 50 različitih institucija koje se bave geoznanostima, a koje postavljaju veliki broj geostanica na području južne i istočne Europe, od Apenina sve do Ukrajine.
- Upravo Dubrovnik leži na granici tzv. Adria ploče koja je nekada bila puno veća i cijela se ova inicijativa i okupila kako bi istražila prošlost te nekada velike jadranske ploče koja je bila u središtu Mediterana, a koja je danas raznim procesima ‘pojedena‘ i spala na veličinu Jadranskog mora – kaže dr Stipčević.
Kaže kako i stručnjaci i građani svjesni koliko je dubrovačko područje trusno te da se iz ranijih potresa zna kako su potresi u Dubrovniku veliki potresi i da će se jednom ponovo dogoditi veliki potres sličan onome u 17. stoljeću.
- Svi seizmolozi ponavljamo kako moramo biti spremni za potrese, a rekao bih da Dubrovnik prilično dobro misli na to, no iako potres ne možemo predvidjeti, važno je da kada se potres dogodi sve službe budu spremne i sigurne i da nemamo potpuni kaos. Mislim da su ljudi ovdje svjesni kako je Dubrovnik seizmički ugrožen i da na to treba misliti – govori dr Stipčević.
- Potres koji se 1979. godine dogodio južnije od Dubrovnika on je bio velik potres kakav mi u Dubrovniku očekujemo. Ono što se dogodilo u Stonu 1996. bio je jak potres, na razini između zagrebačkog i petrinjskog potresa. To jest jak potres, ali ni blizu onome kakav je 1979. bio u Crnoj Gori i kakav je u 17. stoljeću bio u Dubrovniku. Kroz ovaj projekt postavljeno je već 1400 seizmoloških stanica. Na području Dalmacije s norveškim sveučilištem u Bergenu postavljeno je 13 novih postaja i planirano ih je postaviti još petnaestak. Seizmolozi iz Švicarske su u BiH postavili 20 stanica, a znanstvenici s PMF-a su u okviru projekta pri Hrvatskoj zakladi za znanost postavili sedam stanica na području Dubrovnika:
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- Gledamo gdje se i kako događaju potresi i kakva je budućnost i prošlost tektonike i tih procesa na ovom području - objašnjava dr. Josip Stipčević. - Istražujemo, mapiramo rasjede, gdje su aktivni i procjenjujemo gdje će se potres inicirati, na kojoj dubini, kako će se širiti potresna ploha itd. Kolegica koja sada radi doktorat, radi simulaciju velikog dubrovačkog potresa iz 17. stoljeća, da bi mi znali iz različitih scenarija procijeniti štete i na što trebamo paziti. Znamo gdje su aktivni rasjedi i kako se događaju potresi, a onda na temelju toga i svega što znamo pokušavamo simulirati što će se dogoditi kada se u budućnost takav potres dogodi… Primjerice, Stradun je nasip i kada se dogodi potres imate ampliciranu trešnju u tim nasutim dijelovima. To su sve detalji koji su važni i koje moramo čuti. Dubrovnik misli na to, i s kim god iz lokalne uprave razgovaramo svjesni su toga i izlaze nam u susret, pa su nam tako pomogli kod nalaženja lokacija za postavljanja seizmoloških postaja. Najnoviju smo postavili na Mljetu, a još i na Šipanu i u Radovčićima u Konavlima, no kako je područje Dubrovnika usko i razvučeno postavili smo zajedno s kolegama iz BiH tri postaje i u istočnoj Hercegovini, Bileći, Ljubinju i Nevesinju koja su nam iznimno važne za lociranje potresa na ovom području, a nadamo se da ćemo postaviti još tri, četiri postaje na ovom području u idućih nekoliko godina – govori dr Stipčević.
Skup je organiziran uz potporu ORFEUS-a (Observatories and Research Facilities for European Seismology) i EPOS-a (European Plate Observing System) kroz projekt EPSO-SP iz programa Obzor 2020, dok je lokalni organizator Geofizički odsjek Prirodoslovno-matematičkog fakulteta Sveučilišta u Zagrebu.
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16. svibanj 2024 19:20